The time is nigh and I’ve been holding out long enough: It’s Oscars o’clock.
I am going to steal AJ’s format from his post with a minor change. I am only going to put what I think will win and what I would have voted for if I had my own ballot.
Each category will have a confidence level signaling how sure I am of my prediction. 1 (basically a guess) to 5 (stone cold LOCK)
Lets go.
Best Picture – Confidence Level: 1
The Nominees are:
- Black Panther
- BlacKkKlansman
- Bohemian Rhapsody
- The Favourite
- Green Book
- Roma
- A Star Is Born
- Vice
Who Will Win: Roma
Who Should Win: BlacKkKlansman
While AJ made a great point about people dumpstering Roma for being a Netflix film, I think the overwhelming love The Academy has for this film will outweigh a small minority of protest votes.
My actual ballot goes to BlacKkKlansman, not because it is necessarily the best film of the year (although it’s basically a 5 way tie this year), but because Spike Lee is way past due. Do the Right Thing losing out to Driving Miss Daisy is one of the most egregious mistakes in The Academy’s tenure and they have a chance to right that wrong with BlacKkKlansman over Green Book.
Best Actress – Confidence Level: 4
The Nominees are:
- Yalitza Aparicio – Roma
- Glenn Close – The Wife
- Olivia Colman – The Favourite
- Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born
- Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Who Will Win: Glenn Close
Who Should Win: Lady Gaga
The Academy is going with a lifetime achievement award here which is fine. It’s unfortunate it’s in a year with such a strong performances from actresses who are probably never going to have another chance. Colman, Gaga, Aparicio, and yes even McCarthy all deliver strong performances that are all significantly better than Close’s and it’s doubtful that any of these ladies will get another shot at this. The only reason this isn’t a stone cold lock is because there has been a ton of hype for Colman’s performance so she could be a spoiler to Close.
For my personal ballot I chose Lady Gaga. I’m a sucker for musicals and Gaga over performs with a subtle and subdued showing. While The Academy typically awards veteran actors for their body of work, I’m more impressed when an outsider comes in an delivers a once in a lifetime performance.
Best Actor – Confidence Level: 5
The Nominees Are:
- Christian Bale – Vice
- Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born
- Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate
- Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody
- Viggo Mortensen – Green Book
Who Will Win: Rami Malek
Who Should Win: Bradley Cooper
What a depressing lineup. In a year with incredible female leads, the bros aren’t bringing their best. Rami Malek has won essentially every precursor in the run up to tonight so it really is his award to lose. Christian Bale has an outside shot for doing incredible body work for his role as Dick Cheney but it’s such a small chance it’s not where I’d risk a spoiler.
Bradley Cooper delivers the best performance of the year (aside from Ethan Hawke for First Reformed who some how isn’t even in contention) and has the body of work that The Academy generally awards. Not to mention that he also is writer/director/producer/singer/actor. The man did it all which should be rewarded (spoiler…it won’t).
Best Supporting Actress – Confidence Level: 3
The Nominees Are:
- Amy Adams – Vice
- Marina de Tavira – Roma
- Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk
- Emma Stone – The Favourite
- Rachel Weisz – The Favourite
Who Will Win: Regina King
Who Should Win: Amy Adams
This is one of the categories you can really gain some ground against your fellow Oscar degenerates. The front runner is Rachel Weisz for her wins at the Globes and Critics Choice Awards BUT there are three big things holding her back. She is competing against co-star Emma Stone and could split The Favourite vote, she only won 1 of the major precursors (BAFTA), and there has been a post precursor push for Roma’s Marina de Tavira who is a true wild card. I think Regina King will eek out a close three-way race because Beale Street was under-represented and this is a way for the Academy to award an incredible film,
GIVE AMY ADAMS AN OSCAR. SHE IS A TREASURE AND SHOULD BE REWARDED.
Best Supporting Actor – Confidence Level: 5
The Nominees Are:
- Mahershala Ali – Green Book
- Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman
- Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born
- Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
- Sam Rockwell – Vice
Who Will Win: Mahershala Ali
Who Should Win: Sam Elliot
Mahershala Ali has won every single precursor. All of them. This isn’t close. It’s a shame that his is category fraud as Ali is undeniably not a supporting role.
Sam Elliot is a veteran actor who steals the show for the 5 scenes he’s in. It was a beautiful performance and it’s a shame that it is going to be completely unrewarded.
Time for the turbo round!
Best Original Screenplay – Confidence Level 5
Who Will Win: The Favourite
Who Should Win: The Favourite
Slam. Dunk.
Best Adapted Screenplay – Confidence Level 2
Who Will Win: BlacKkKlansman?
Who Should Win: BlacKkKlansman
This is a three way race between BlacKkKlansman, Beale Street, and Can You Ever Forgive Me. I’m going with the best picture nominee here but it really is a toss-up.
Best Animated Feature – Confidence Level: 4.9
Who Will Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Who Should Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Fun fact. Disney/Pixar is 10 for the last 10 in animated when they have a nominee. Spider-Man is here to end the dynasty. There If this was any other awards show it would be an ultimate ultra lock. But this is the Oscars. This is the same Academy that chose Brave over Wreck-It Ralph. I don’t trust them for shit.
Best Foreign Language Film – Confidence Level: 5
Who Will Win: Roma
Who Should Win: Roma
You have a best picture nominee in your minor category? That’s a lock.
Best Documentary Feature – Confidence Level: 4
Who Will Win: Free Solo
Who Should Win: Minding The Gap
Free Solo is the only one on the list with a precursor win so it’s a pretty good lock. RBG has a chance on name recognition and politics but it is an outside shot.
Minding The Gap is an incredible work and should be rewarded as such.
Best Original Score – Confidence Level: -1
Who Will Win: BlacKkKlansman
Who Should Win: Isle of Dogs
This is a clusterfuck. Literally a guess.
Best Original Song – Confidence Level: 5
Who Will Win: “Shallow”
Who Should Win: “Shallow”
If I had to bet my house on a win. This is it.
Best Sound Editing- Confidence Level: 4
Who Will Win: A Quiet Place
Who Should Win: A Quiet Place
C’mon. Gotta give it to a truly interesting and unique film. The use of sound in this film is super cool and The Academy likes seeming hip to the kiddies.
Best Sound Mixing- Confidence Level: 4
Who Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody
Who Should Win: A Star Is Born
The battle of the concert scenes. I think Bohemian Rhaspody has the edge of being something the old fart Academy voters can latch onto.
Best Production Design- Confidence Level: 3
Who Will Win: The Favourite
Who Should Win: Black Panther
It’s Black Panther vs The Favourite and I’m leaning on the old crowd to love the period piece and not truly appreciate the world building of Wakanda.
Best Cinematography- Confidence Level: 5
Who Will Win: Roma
Who Should Win: Roma
LOCK IT UP
Best Makeup & Hairstyling- Confidence Level: 5
Who Will Win: Vice
Who Should Win: Vice
Have you seen Vice?
Best Costume Design – Confidence Level: 4
Who Will Win: Black Panther
Who Should Win: Black Panther
Against AJs wishes I’m going to split the Costume/Production awards. It’s a slight hedge if I am wrong about production design, but also the dresses and hats of The Favourite are kinda gross and grimey. Not the decadence that period pieces are typically known for. Black Panther’s costumes are incredible.
Best Film Editing- Confidence Level: 2
Who Will Win: Bohemian Rhaspody
Who Should Win: BlacKkKlansman
The only thing keeping this from a level 1 is that Green Book is such trash it can’t possibly win. 4 way race with no clear front runner. Picked the more popular movie even if I think its editing is subpar.
Best Visual Effects – Confidence Level: 4
Who Will Win: Avengers: Infinity War
Who Should Win: Avengers: Infinity War
Super hero movies typically win this and Thanos is a truly amazing effect. Look for First Man getting a win here as a pitty prize for being shut out the rest of the night.
Best Documentary – Short Confidence Level: 2
Who Will Win: Period. End of Sentence
Who Should Win: Abstain
I literally haven’t seen any of these films which is a shame because most of them are available on streaming services. I’m going with a popular choice.
Best Live Action Short- Confidence Level: 1
Who Will Win: Fauve
Who Should Win: ?
Picking Fauve based solely on the boss ass trailer. Didn’t get to see these.
Best Animated Short Film- Confidence Level: 3
Who Will Win: Bao
Who Should Win: Bao
This is a close race between two top contenders Bao and Animal Behavior. One is a Pixar short so it has name recognition, but Animal Behavior has gotten a rather large push seemingly out of nowhere. If you are going to pick a spoiler to really put you over the top here is where you should do it. I am a coward and won’t.
And there we have it! Hopefully I will be crushing it in my Oscars pool and going back to back to back to back against AJ. Check out his post here. And check out our Podcast for a more in-depth look at all of these categories.
Thanks for reading! Peace!
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